January 2022 by E-Mac

NHL Central Scouting Rankings give a fresh perspective and a more complete look at the prospects available in the draft than other rankings. They do their own scouting and rely on each other rather than other rankings to confirm the validity of their rankings. They have often drawn harsh criticism of their final rankings because they generally come out before the IIHF U18 Tournament which often results in a significant recalibration of the pre-tournament rankings. However, overall they do a decent job in what they see as their objective – to provide NHL teams a good idea of the prospects available and the general quality of those prospects. It is up to the NHL teams to do their own scoutings to decide what is best for their individual club.

One criticism I have with Central Scouting is that they put together four lists instead of one – North American and European skaters and North American and European goaltenders. So I put together the four lists and made them one – no magic wand, the first two rounds I insert the average goaltender and European skater ranking based on some of the major ranking agencies. The last five rounds are simply the addition of the average European skaters and goaltenders from the prior year's draft.

Here are some of my overall thoughts on the draft:

1. There are no superstars or franchise players in this draft. Shane Wright, the pre-ordained 1st pick and franchise player is struggling to just have a decent season and he is not alone.

2. If you want a winger, this is the draft for you. If you want a goaltender, you are out of luck. The only reason that a goaltender is likely to be selected in the top 75 is that some teams are desperate to get goaltenders in their system.

3. This is a good season for Europeans; Canadians, not so much. The USA has a number of good to very good players; I have 7 in the first round but no game-changers.

4. The lack of games due to Covid last year has had a detrimental effect on the development of many players. Many are underperforming compared to expectations. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the OHL which did not play last season. It is difficult to get a good read on the OHL players as they can look like stars one game or period and duds the next.

5. Every year 20 to 30 players really up their game and their rankings in the second half of the season. I am expecting this number to increase this year if they get to play some games as many are cancelled right now.

There seems a lot more variability between rankings this year. I suppose that is due to the lack of consistency of the players. It is like Forest Gump’s mother’s saying, “Life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get.” Here are my comments on the current first round differences between the NHL and my rankings: 

NHL Central Scouting 1st Rounders Ranked Later by E-Mac

1. Jack Hughes – NHL 13; E-Mac 46, B-Mac 27 – C, L, 6’0, 170, 68G Eq Pts -28

Jack Hughes, AKA, the other Jack Hughes, is the son of the new Canadiens GM, Kent Hughes. He was projected to go 1st round by most including me in the pre-season. However, he has found the progression from the USHL to the older, larger NCAA players more difficult than expected. His lack of strength can be corrected or at least improved upon by some time in the gym. I am not a fan of under-strength centres so my ranking may be lower than some.

2. Luca Del Bel Belluz – NHL 22; E-Mac 36, B-Mac 37 – C, L, 6’0, 178, 68G Eq Pts – 91

Luca Del Bel Belluz has risen from obscurity to become one of the few overachievers in a year where so many have underachieved versus expectations. He is on a higher pace than the projected no 1, Shane Wright, and is good defensively so why do some like me not have him higher? It is the skating that is not NHL caliber – how you view his skating and the likelihood he will improve it is apt to be the defining factor in different rankings.

3. Gleb Trikozov – NHL 23; E-Mac 48, B-Mac 64 – F, L, 6’1, 185, 68G Eq Pts – 75

Gleb Trikozov started the year in the VHL, Russia’s AHL, and struggled to find his game. Now back in the MHL, he is starting to look better putting up more than a point per game. Gleb stands out for his skating, acceleration, shot, and ability to see the ice. He has the potential to go higher if his results start to match the expectations for his skills.

4. Calle Odelius – NHL 24; E-Mac 41, B-Mac-38 – D, L, 5’11, 185, 68G Eq Pts – 50

Calle Odelius is a modestly sized mobile defenseman who is having a very good season in the Swedish top J20 league as well as getting some games in the SHL. He excels in breakouts and defensive zone calmness. The main question is “how high is the upside for this modestly-sized d-man who will likely be more of a stick-checker and puck mover at the NHL level.

5. Adam Ingram – NHL 27; E-Mac 42, B-Mac 32 – C, L, 6’2, 165, 68G Eq Pts – 89

Like Luca Del Bel Bulluz, Adam Ingram has risen from obscurity to become one of the top scorers in his league(the USHL). Adam’s best attributes are his size, shot, and passing ability. His skating and compete are for me only average which is why I may have him lower than some.

6. Maveric Lamoureux – NHL 31; E-Mac 38, B-Mac 28 – D, R, 6’7, 196, 68G Eq Pts – 25

I understand why some scouts would have Maveric Lamoureux higher than me. He has a combination of reach, skating, and physicality that is not often available anywhere. His overall game is still a work in progress, however. He still need improvements in his passing, decision making, and consistency to cross the bridge to the next level.

7. Kirill Dolzhenhov – NHL 32; E-Mac 97, B-Mac 71. LW, L, 6’6, 235 – 68G Eq Pts – 55

There are some things to really like about Kirill Dolzhenkov – Size, hands and moves look big league or close to big league. The skating, however, as you may expect with such a big guy is only average. How you view his skating and the likelihood it will improve will likely prove to be the reason rankings can differ substantially.

E-Mac 1st Rounders Ranked Later by NHL Central Scouting

1. Frank Nazar – E-Mac 11; NHL 34, B-Mac 14, RW, R, 5’10, 175, 68G Eq Pts – 82

I love Frank Nazar because he has the speed, energy, effort, vision, and skills necessary to overcome any issues related to being slightly under-sized. Why Central Scouting has him in the 2nd round, I have no idea.

2. Nathan Gaucher – E-Mac 16; NHL 33, B-Mac 20, C, R, 6’3, 208, 68G Eq Pts – 59

OK, I may be higher than most on Nathan Gaucher but I love what he brings to the table – big man physicality with a touch of meanness, awesome net-front presence, outstanding vision, and a guy with high-end moves at speed. His top-end speed is good but he can use a little work on his agility. His results so far have not been awesome but that may be because he is on a strong Remparts team. This is a guy who will be an impact player in the NHL. Where he goes and where you rank him is mostly dependent on whether you think he has top 6 upside or not.

3. Jani Nyman – E-Mac 19; NHL 40, LW, B-Mac 49, L, 6’3, 218 – 68G Eq Pts – 68 

Like Nathan Gaucher, Jani Nyman has that big man game that I love. I love his big man energy when he drives to the net. He has decent speed but could go through the gears a bit faster. He is someone who is already producing at a point a game in the second Finnish men’s league and looks to have a great deal of progression left in his game as he has gone through a recent growth spurt. It is that potential for progression that has me having him higher than many others including the NHL Central Scouting.

4. Owen Pickering – E-Mac 21; NHL 39, B-Mac 36, D, L, 6’4, 179 – 68G Eq Pts – 43

Ok, it is mainly about what he can be and not where he is at. His game is still very much a work in process. Those who have ranked him as high or higher than me usually look at the reach, the mobility, defensive positioning, puck carrying ability, and say that this guy has the potential to be a top shutdown guy in the NHL. Some even think that he will start to produce significant offense although I am not one of them. He is not yet there on either the offense or the shutdown part so that is why some have him lower or even significantly lower.

5. Kevin Korchinski – E-Mac 23; NHL 37, B-Mac 25, D, L, 6’1, 185, 68G Eq Pts – 58

I love to watch Kevin Korchinski because of how smooth and easy everything seems to be. He has great vision to find the open man, a quickness of pace that gets the offense moving. He is a good puck carrier and does well on the power play. He needs to make some adjustments in his backward skating which may account for some having him ranked lower than me.

6. Ryan Chesley – E-Mac 28; NHL 41, B-Mac 18, D, R, 6’0, 187, 68G Eq Pts – 14

Those that like him and like him a lot site his skating, calmness, breakouts, passing, one on one play, and puck-carrying talents. Those that are not quite so positive site his lack of points, vision and upside. I am more on the first side.

7. Ty Nelson – E-Mac – 32; NHL 46, B-Mac 34, D, R, 5’10, 195, 68G Eq Pts – 55

A Ryan Ellis lite type of player. He is not quite in the same league as Ryan Ellis but plays similar to him. Size will always be a concern but his defensive game has been improving but is not where it needs to be yet. How you view his defensive game projection is likely to be the dominant factor in how high his ranking goes.